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Shinsuke Nakada is quite literally unlikely to repeat his brilliant work with DAIWA PIER39. But that's only because Unlikely deals in more classic fare.

Nakada, a former BEAMS menswear buyer, has spent a half-decade or so transforming an upstart sub-label of Japanese fishing brand Daiwa into one of the coolest casual tech brands in the biz. Three years after DAIWA PIER39 debuted in 2020, Nakada launched Unlikely as his version of American trad, a modernized and wearable Take Ivy-flavored style manual.

The results are still more modest than A.PRESSE, which tends to rebirth workwear reproductions wholly anew through absurdly arduous craft, or even most of the Nepenthes family brands. (Nakada is clearly pretty well aligned with the latter, though, as Nepenthes New York hosted an Unlikely pop-up in late 2024.)

For the past several seasons, really, Unlikely has maintained a presence as unassuming as its name. The real heads knew. The broader clothing-buying public wasn't ready.

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By the time that Fall/Winter 2025 rolls out, they'll be ready.

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Unlikely's FW25 collection is presented in an absurdly aspirational lookbook that styles the label's typically uncomplicated wares with grace necessary to render them vital.

You can tell that Unlikely is still only just breaking through broader fashion-observing culture because I counted at least two pages mistakenly credit Unlikely FW25 as DAIWA PIER39 FW25. Not a totally outrageous goof given the shared principles and design director. But proof that Unlikely is onto something here.

It ironically takes a fair bit of work to look this effortless, with a corduroy-trimmed chore coat draped atop a quilted zip-up liner or a washed-out denim jacket tucked beneath a beautifully big raglan wool overcoat. But the key that it all looks easy and as plainly cool as Unlikely's name would imply.

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Cold-weather seasons are a cheat code for good style because they actually allow for layering but credit where it's due. Unlikely has patiently leveled up its design game without much modifying its core approach.

The garments look more appreciably lived in. The silhouettes are looser. The accessorizing is snappier.

After all, this is a brand for which it's rare that seasonal collections get more complicated than structured blazers and washed-out jeans. That's not a diss: Nakada's fits and fabrics are always dialed in. It's just difficult to sell thoughtful clothes through a screen.

By pulling off a half-visvim — no small feat! — Unlikely has deservingly leveled up.

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