Reports of Nike's death are greatly exaggerated. Although, things are admittedly not looking great for the Swoosh. Nike shares are nearly 80 percent down from their all-time high in late 2021 and have declined over 50 percent since CEO Elliott Hill's tenure began in October 2024. As a result, the sportswear giant is about to be removed from the S&P 100, an index of the top 100 American stocks. (Nike will remain in the S&P 500 and similar indices.)

Not ideal. But also not a reason to count out Nike. Not yet. It's just that, when the sportswear giant inevitably turns the corner, it won't be the Nike you knew.

A lot of reactions to the news of Nike's removal from the S&P 100 could be summed up as "about time." Nike's been the king for so long that its fall was inevitable, and isn't it always satisfying to see a titan stumble?

It's true that several post-COVID-19 pandemic missteps opened Nike up to unforeseen challenges, but I'd argue that, in reveling over the humbling of a king, commentators are missing the bigger picture. (also, anyone chalking up Nike's short-term downfall to personal grievances with a faceless multinational conglomerate ought to touch grass.)

Upon joining Nike — and unretiring, to do so! — Hill outlined a multiyear turnaround plan intended to bear fruit in 2026. It was later pushed to 2027 and, frankly, I'd say even that sounds optimistic. There's a lot of work to be done, much as investors and hangers-on hate to hear And CEO Hill's attempts to pacify investors don't not come across a tad frantic. But only Nike has the strength to achieve it.

The problems cut deep. For one, during the pandemic, Nike made a pivot towards lifestyle product and direct-to-consumer sales while shirking its wholesale business. This brought short-term growth and long-term damage, minimizing shelf space at retailers and normalizing deep discounts.

For another, Nike's got to repair its cultural cache. It famously lost the performance-shoe-to-daily-driver sneaker battle to HOKA and On a few years ago; its lifestyle business is facing stiff competition from old rival adidas and upstarts like Saucony; and its grasp on the athleisure market is challenged by brands like Lululemon and Alo (Nike is estimated to represent nearly 32 percent of the American athleisure market; Lululemon is 21 percent). Industry analysts no longer look to Nike as reflective of the "athletic performance footwear" market.

But numbers only tell part of the story. Recall how shocking it was when, in 2013, it was widely reported that Nike's best-selling sneaker was the Air Monarch, a then-unknown ultra-chunky shoe that predated modern "dad shoe" trends.

There's a lot more going on beneath the surface than any of these companies will ever let on. In many ways, Hill's strategy of returning Nike to being a sportswear brand first, lifestyle second, appears to be bearing fruit. Nike is credited for "winning" the 2026 World Cup and, anecdotally, I've seen a ton of people walking around wearing the Vomero Premium and Vomero Plus, Nike's surprisingly steezy cushioned-running-shoes-turned-all-day-walkers.

It's just that right now, the tides of culture are simply not in Nike's favor. It's funny that a company that's selling out of even its mildest limited-edition drops can also be considered "uncool" but such is the squishy state of our collective taste. Remember, however, that even when longtime Nike partner Supreme was "dead," it was still moving product (to some degree).

Of course, now Supreme is as hot as it's ever been and Nike will be the same, in time. I know I'm comparing a $500 million company to a $46 billion company but vibes are everything, for both hype and share prices.

But when Nike does reclaim its throne, this won't be the same Nike it was a half-decade ago.

Much like the Supreme of today looks similar but different to (and cooler than) the Supreme of five years ago, the Nike of the future will be far removed from the Nike of 2021. It'll have to be. Culture has little patience for Nike as it is known. You can turn out all the good stuff you want — if the vibe isn't right, it won't matter. (Again, even when Supreme was "dead," it dropped plenty of solid gear.)

Nike will be back on top. It's too big not to be. Like, Nike may be exiting the S&P 100 but are any of its rivals anywhere near the S&P 100? adidas isn't even on the S&P 500 and look how long it took adidas to reverse its fortunes (which are still not guaranteed). On is up and down, affected by the same headwinds slowing Nike's revival. Same for PUMA. Deckers, parent company of UGG and HOKA, is consistent but hardly all-powerful. And do any of them have the name-brand cache to compare with Nike?

There's a lot of race to run before anyone gets close to Nike, which was and remains the king. Expect many more fancy sneakers in the meantime.

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